Posts Tagged Purchasing

Purchasing Managers’ index further below the growth threshold

The seasonally adjusted Purchasing Managers’ index (PMI), which is calculated monthly on behalf of the Bundesverband Materialwirtschaft, Einkauf und Logistik (BME, or German Association Materials Management, Purchasing, Logistics) was below the 50 points level in October for the eighth month in a row: it deteriorated by 1.4 points to 46.0 – values above 50 points signal growth. According to the BME declining exports to Europe and Asia led to this continuing decline in orders received and thus also in purchasing.

The PMI sub-index “Output” lost 2.1 points in October compared to September and is currently at 46.3. Capital goods manufacturers had to cope with the worst falls while the consumer goods industry was able to post slight increases. The BME is assuming a “difficult 4th quarter” for companies. Evidence for this can be seen in widespread running down of stocks, personnel reductions and rising costs for fuels and energy.

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Purchasing managers index early indicator continues to fall

The continuing deterioration in the euro crisis is also putting the German economy under increasing pressure – this trend can also be seen in figures on the purchasing behaviour of companies in Germany, which the Bundesverband Materialwirtschaft, Einkauf und Logistik (BME, or German Association Materials Management, Purchasing and Logistics) has recently submitted. According to the seasonally adjusted Markit/BME purchasing managers’ index (EMI), both domestic and foreign demand is falling. Not only did industrial production contract in June for the fourth month in a row, the falls in growth were even more serious than in May. The current EMI dropped 0.2 points to 45.0, thus sliding to the lowest level since June 2009. This early indicator, which enjoys great international recognition, has not moved for so long under the neutral growth mark of 50 points since the turn of the year in 2008/2009.

According to the information from the BME, the important sub-indices that have been moving downwards for months include production, orders received and sales prices. Thus, primarily due to a lack of new and follow up orders, German industrial businesses scaled back their production strongly in the report month for the third time. At 44.8 the sub-index output was only slightly higher than the 35 month low in May (44.6). Slowing domestic and foreign demand resulted in a decline in orders for the twelfth time in a row. The sub-index orders received is moving well below its long term average of 52.6 points at 44.4 currently (May: 43.8).Weak worldwide demand for semi-finished products and raw materials also left a strong decline in purchasing process in the industrial sector in its wake (42.8 after 51.5 in May). This has caused companies to lower their prices slightly for the first time in nearly two and a half years (49.4 in June after 51.3 in the previous month).

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Logistics purchasers not expecting a recession in 2012

Although purchasers of logistics services (shippers) expect less growth in 2012 due to clouded growth prospects they do not expect a recession. Goods transport will reach at least the same transport volumes as in the very good 2011 financial year. In some segments volumes will even increase. This is the central result of the current survey on the 2010 transport market from the Bundesverbandes Materialwirtschaft, Einkauf und Logistik (BME, or German Association Materials Management Purchasing and Logistics) and the Baden-Wuerttemberg Cooperative State University Lörrach. 189 shippers and service providers from industry and retail took part. It is also expected that transport prices will rise next year.

According to the current BME survey, quantities of full load and part load transports can be expected to rise by between 38 and 42 per cent. In general cargo and CEP (courier, express and parcel services) well over half of those questioned even think transport volumes will rise. “Thus the long term trend towards smaller consignment sizes is continuing,” said Prof. Dr.-Ing. Andreas R. Voegele, Member of the BME Management Board and Managing Partner of the ConMoto Consulting Group. Shippers assess the situation more positively than transport and logistics service providers in all sectors. “The difference is particularly serious in groupage freight: 42 per cent of all shippers but only 28 per cent of service providers believe there will be an increase in transport volumes,” continued Voegele.

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Input goods more expensive than ever

The index of producer prices for commercial products was 6.4 per cent higher in February 2011 than in February 2010. As the German Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) reported further, the last time there was a higher rate of change was in October 2008 (+ 7.3 per cent). The index rose by 0.7 per cent in February 2011 compared with the previous month January. Price increases for energy were responsible for a good half of the total rise in February 2011. Energy prices were 11 per cent higher than in the previous month. Without taking energy prices into account, producer prices were 4.5 per cent higher in February 2011 than in February 2010.

The prices for input goods – i.e. goods that are used, processed or converted in production processes – rose by 8.5 per cent in one year, thus reaching a new peak. Prices for metals primarily contributed to the high rate of change. They were 22.4 per cent higher than twelve months before. For example, rolled steel was 30.3 per cent more expensive than in February 2010.

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Purchasing managers’ index well above average

German industry’s business outlook continues to improve: the seasonally adjusted Markit purchasing managers’ index (EMI) from the Bundesverband Materialwirtschaft, Einkauf und Logistik (BME, or German Association Materials Management Purchasing and Logistics) reached 60.5 points in January. Thus the EMI was well above the long term average of 52.1 points. The index is based on a survey of 500 heads of purchasing/managing directors from manufacturing industry in Germany, providing a representative selection of sectors, company sizes and regions. Productivity also rose significantly while orders remained at a high level.

However, purchasing prices also climbed to record highs in the wake of these developments. As the BME reports, many purchasers are already complaining about an increasing shortage of input materials as well as bottlenecks at suppliers.

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