Posts Tagged Purchasing

Logistics purchasers not expecting a recession in 2012

Although purchasers of logistics services (shippers) expect less growth in 2012 due to clouded growth prospects they do not expect a recession. Goods transport will reach at least the same transport volumes as in the very good 2011 financial year. In some segments volumes will even increase. This is the central result of the current survey on the 2010 transport market from the Bundesverbandes Materialwirtschaft, Einkauf und Logistik (BME, or German Association Materials Management Purchasing and Logistics) and the Baden-Wuerttemberg Cooperative State University Lörrach. 189 shippers and service providers from industry and retail took part. It is also expected that transport prices will rise next year.

According to the current BME survey, quantities of full load and part load transports can be expected to rise by between 38 and 42 per cent. In general cargo and CEP (courier, express and parcel services) well over half of those questioned even think transport volumes will rise. “Thus the long term trend towards smaller consignment sizes is continuing,” said Prof. Dr.-Ing. Andreas R. Voegele, Member of the BME Management Board and Managing Partner of the ConMoto Consulting Group. Shippers assess the situation more positively than transport and logistics service providers in all sectors. “The difference is particularly serious in groupage freight: 42 per cent of all shippers but only 28 per cent of service providers believe there will be an increase in transport volumes,” continued Voegele.

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Input goods more expensive than ever

The index of producer prices for commercial products was 6.4 per cent higher in February 2011 than in February 2010. As the German Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) reported further, the last time there was a higher rate of change was in October 2008 (+ 7.3 per cent). The index rose by 0.7 per cent in February 2011 compared with the previous month January. Price increases for energy were responsible for a good half of the total rise in February 2011. Energy prices were 11 per cent higher than in the previous month. Without taking energy prices into account, producer prices were 4.5 per cent higher in February 2011 than in February 2010.

The prices for input goods – i.e. goods that are used, processed or converted in production processes – rose by 8.5 per cent in one year, thus reaching a new peak. Prices for metals primarily contributed to the high rate of change. They were 22.4 per cent higher than twelve months before. For example, rolled steel was 30.3 per cent more expensive than in February 2010.

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Purchasing managers’ index well above average

German industry’s business outlook continues to improve: the seasonally adjusted Markit purchasing managers’ index (EMI) from the Bundesverband Materialwirtschaft, Einkauf und Logistik (BME, or German Association Materials Management Purchasing and Logistics) reached 60.5 points in January. Thus the EMI was well above the long term average of 52.1 points. The index is based on a survey of 500 heads of purchasing/managing directors from manufacturing industry in Germany, providing a representative selection of sectors, company sizes and regions. Productivity also rose significantly while orders remained at a high level.

However, purchasing prices also climbed to record highs in the wake of these developments. As the BME reports, many purchasers are already complaining about an increasing shortage of input materials as well as bottlenecks at suppliers.

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China’s purchasing manager index falls

Growth in China’s manufacturing industry has weakened. The official Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) of the China Federation of Logistics & Purchasing (CFLP) fell to a seasonally adjusted 52.1 points in June 2010. In May the PMI was still at 53.9 points and it was at 55.7 points in April. However, this decline started from a relatively high level. According to the CFLP’s information, an Index above 50 points indicates expansion in manufacturing business. The Index is based on surveys of 727 Chinese companies from 20 industrial sectors. The majority of these sectors – 14 in total – reported values below 50 points, which indicates a contraction in these areas.

The PMI has been recorded since 2005. It reached its low in November 2008, with 38.8 points and its peak value was achieved in December 2009 with 56.6 points.

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