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Posts Tagged Economic trends
February 25th, 2013 | Thema: News
The ten independent business cycle research institutes of the EUROFRAME Group (European Forecasting Research Association for the Macro-Economy), whose German member is the Deutsche Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung (DIW Berlin, or German Institute for Economic Research), are assuming in their current winter forecast 2012/2013 that total economic production in the eurozone shrank by 0.5 per cent in 2012. The reasons given by the scientists were a weak foreign business environment, the pronounced uncertainty on the financial markets and strongly dampening finance policy. Accordingly, during the year those countries in the eurozone that had previously still supported economic development in the euro area were also increasingly caught by weakness in growth. The weakening at the end of the year also had effects on a rise in average gross domestic product in 2013. Overall the institutes also expect declining gross domestic product in the eurozone in 2013.
According to the forecast, although the mood and trust of the economy will improve during this year, foreign demand could not compensate for the falling demand within the eurozone, however, so that GDP will drop by 0.3 per cent in 2013. The institutes see the inflation rate at 1.5 per cent and the unemployment rate at a level of 12.4 per cent. The EUROFRAME Group only expects a rise in total economic production in 2014. This will be moderate at 1.3 per cent.
February 18th, 2013 | Thema: News
Growth started in Germany at the beginning of 2013. The mood of crisis has calmed and the current business situation of companies has stabilised, reports the Deutsche Industrie- und Handelskammertag (DIHK, or Association of German Chambers of Commerce and Industry) on the basis of its latest growth survey. The DIHK growth survey at the beginning of 2013 evaluated more than 28,000 company answers. On this basis the DIHK expects growth of 0.7 per cent this year. This corresponds to the economic growth estimated in autumn 2012.
Furthermore, the DIHK forecasts a continued rise in employment. On annual average this will amount to an extra 150,000 jobs. This rise in employment will not lower the unemployment figure one for one, however, but will primarily soak up the “hidden reserve” and come from European employees.
February 11th, 2013 | Thema: News
In December 2012 the volume of orders booked for mechanical and plant engineering in Germany was up four per cent in real terms on the previous year’s figure. Domestic business rose by one per cent, export business was five per cent up on the previous year, according to the latest figures from the German Engineering Association (VDMA) gathered from its affiliated companies. According to the association, the overall figure for the three-month period from October to December 2012 less hit by short-term fluctuations is three per cent up on the previous year. Domestic orders were down one per cent, orders from abroad up four per cent. For the whole year (January to December 2012) there is an overall decrease of three per cent. Domestic orders were down eight per cent, orders from abroad stagnated.
Considering the industry as a whole, at the end of the year the trend in volumes of orders was upwards – albeit not as strong as in mechanical and plant engineering. According to provisional figures from the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis), volumes of orders in the industry in December 2012 were up 0.8 per cent on the previous month after price, calendar and seasonal adjustments. They had still been down 1.8 per cent in November. Whereas domestic demand decreased by 1.2 per cent, orders from abroad showed a clear increase of 2.4 per cent.
February 4th, 2013 | Thema: News
According to the Association of German Chambers of Industry and Commerce (DIHK), the most recent sharp decline in German export prices is due to the recession in many European countries. The DIHK says there is extreme reticence to invest in many euro countries, making them hardly the ideal environment for price increases. Some companies have therefore granted price concessions, says DIHK foreign trade expert Ilja Nothnagel.
According to the latest surveys conducted by the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis), German exporters reduced their prices in December 2012 by 0.4 per cent on the previous month. That is the sharpest decrease in export prices for four years. Although world trade is slack at the moment, the DIHK is still expecting robust growth in exports this year.
January 14th, 2013 | Thema: News
According to provisional information from the Federal Statistics Office (Destatis), price-adjusted sales in November 2012 were 1.1 per cent lower than in October 2012, adjusted seasonally and for working days, after a minus of 0.5 per cent in October 2012 compared to September 2012. While domestic sales in November 2012 only fell slightly by -0.3 per cent, sales to foreign buyers declined much more by -1.9 per cent. Related to foreign markets, sales to the eurozone dropped by 1.0 per cent and sales to the rest of the world by 2.5 per cent.
In an annual comparison with November 2011, adjusted manufacturing sales were 3.6 per cent lower in November 2012, according to Destatis calculations. During this period domestic business contracted by 4.8 per cent, foreign sales by 2.2 per cent. The differing developments in foreign markets continued in these twelve months: sales to the eurozone dropped by 8.1 per cent, in contrast business with other foreign markets increased by 2.2 per cent.